Bio-shares (600201): The post-cycle leader wave of protection may come again
Investment Highlights Performance Summary: The company achieved operating income in 201819.
0 million yuan, ten-year average of 0.
2%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies7.
5 ppm, a ten-year average of 13.
At the same time, the company announced the first quarter report of 2019, reporting that the merger will achieve operating income3.
3 ‰, a ten-year average of 46.
1%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies1.
6 ‰, 46 years ago.
Affected by African swine fever in the short term dragged down the company’s performance.
The data of the company’s 2018 annual report and the first quarter of 2019 showed a trend. The main reason is that the animal husbandry industry has been continuously affected by the African swine plague since the second half of 2018, which has led to a significant increase in the amount of aquaculture and vaccine demand.
In the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved net profit of 73.42 million yuan and 1.
6 trillion, respectively 60.
7% and 46.
1%, the trend of centralization of long-term breeding leading enterprises remains unchanged.
After the pig price entered April, it showed a breakthrough after a short-term adjustment.
The data of live pigs and fertile sows in January-March 2019 were separated by 5 from the previous month.
2% and 3.
6%, 5%, 2.
3%, from the point of view of data, the current marginal improvement of the amplitude trend.
It is expected that pig prices will continue to rise in the second half of the year, which will increase the intent of farmers to fill the pens, which will increase the demand for vaccines.
In addition, in the context of the continuous infestation of African swine plague, in addition to promoting the awareness of pig farmers in epidemic prevention, higher requirements are also placed on pig dispatching among local provinces.
We believe that in the long run, it will be beneficial to domestic leading breeding enterprises, and the trend of increasing the concentration of large-scale farms may continue.
We think the breeding volume and penetration rate will increase rapidly in the next two years, and the company is expected to return to the right track.
The company Liaoning Yikang or profit break point.
Since 2016, nearly a thousand people have been infected.
Among them, there were 264 infected people in 2016, and the number of infected people increased to 589 in 2017. At the same time, the death rate also increased exponentially compared to 2016, and the H7N9 virus began to show high pathogenicity.
Since March 2019, there have been 4 avian influenza infections in China, in particular, human infection with H7N9 avian influenza was found in Inner Mongolia on April 4, 2019, and epidemic prevention pressure has penetrated.
We expect that the bidding vaccine will be mainly converted from a bivalent vaccine to a trivalent vaccine in the past. It is expected that the bidding price may 天津夜网 usher in an increase, and the bidding price is expected to push from zero in the past.
164 yuan / feather rose to 0.
3 yuan / feather, the vaccine market size will usher in a rapid increase, boosting the profitability of Liaoning Yikang.
Profit forecast and rating.
It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.
66 yuan, 0.
78 yuan, 0.91 yuan, corresponding to 24 times, 20 times, and 17 times the dynamic PE. Considering that the farming industry was affected by African swine fever in 2018-2019, the breeding volume will rise rapidly after the normalization of African swine fever in the future.Estimated 25 times a year, corresponding to a target price of 19.
5 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: market competition or intensification, the company’s product sales may be less than expected, raw material prices or fluctuations.